Cedar Rapids, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

177
FXUS63 KDVN 021058
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
558 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms will
  remain in the picture today through the upcoming weekend,
  primarily for locations south and east of the Quad Cities.
  Strong to severe storms are not anticipated.

- Seasonal temperatures are expected through the upcoming
  weekend, with above normal temperatures returning Tuesday and
  Wednesday next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Periodic chances of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
will be sticking around our area, thanks to a few embedded mid-level
shortwave impulses that will move through our region from the
central Plains, as evident on the latest GOES-East mid-level water
vapor imagery. This is all part of a longer wave upper-level trough
that continues to slowly progress eastward over the north-central
CONUS. Radar is mostly dry, except for a few exiting showers over
northwest IL as of 08z/3 AM this morning. An expanding area of
stratus has developed across our northern areas early this morning,
but south of this stratus should be predominantly clear skies, so
some of us over southeastern IA into west-central IL could see some
sunshine to start the day. However, those shortwaves will arrive
this afternoon, leading to increasing chances (30-60%) of showers
and possibly an isolated storm mainly south of Interstate 80.
Instability looks to be pretty meager, with MLCAPE at best up to 500
J/kg this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates aren`t too concerning
either, generally around 6-7 C/km, so some small hail can`t be ruled
out with any robust convection that does develop. Seasonal high
temperatures will continue today, warming to around 60 north to the
upper 60s southeast.

The trough will continue to translate eastward, so chances (20-50%)
of showers will continue tonight, mainly for locations along and
east of the Mississippi River, with lows in the lower to middle
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

As we head into the day Saturday, the upper-level trough will become
cut-off aloft and is now progged to set up south of Lake Michigan
through the weekend into Monday. A dProg/dt analysis of this upper-
level low position among the GFS deterministic and LREF ensemble
guidance indicates a closer position to our region than it was
around 24 hours ago, so it is more likely that we will see more
cloudiness than we thought just a few days ago. In terms of
precipitation chances through Sunday, they will mainly be confined
to locations along and east of the Mississippi River, particularly
south and east of the Quad Cities, as a few PVA maxima pivots near
the area. This activity should remain as rain showers as instability
appears to be too low to support thunderstorms. We will continue to
see seasonal temperatures into Monday, with highs in the 60s and
lows in the 40s.

The cut-off low does appear to finally shift eastward Monday night,
leading to a period of dry conditions Tuesday, thanks to high
pressure ridging aloft. More favorable diabatic heating from
insolation should help temperatures warm to the lower to middle 70s
on Tuesday and Wednesday. For Wednesday and Thursday, guidance
indicates another mid-level shortwave to approach the region from
the west. However, there are some discrepancies about the onset
timing of this wave and attendant precipitation. Ensemble cluster
analysis indicates some varied amplitudes of the approaching wave
and its morphology, so confidence remains low this far out. However,
NBM consensus blends maintain 20-30% chances of showers Wednesday
and Thursday - a pretty weak signal for robust showers, but can`t
rule them out entirely. Again, no concerns for any strong to severe
convection at this time during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

MVFR ceilings continue across our north, including the DBQ TAF
terminal this morning as a low stratus deck continues to pivot
across our north. The latest nighttime microphysics satellite
imagery shows this stratus very well, and it seems to have just
missed CID as of TAF issuance, but it looks to have the right
trajectory for impacting MLI over the next few hours, so I have
put in a TEMPO group of MVFR cigs there. Otherwise, VFR
conditions were seen across the remainder of the region.
Ceilings will eventually improve area-wide to VFR, with another
round of scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
possible this afternoon and evening. Confidence in the exact
coverage/timing remains a bit low, but it seems to be higher
the farther south you go, so used a TEMPO group for BRL to
convey the most likely timing of these showers, with PROB30s
elsewhere. MVFR conditions will be possible with this activity.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz